Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Slows in JulyThe S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for July showed a sharp slowing in home price growth from June to July. National home price growth slowed from June’s reading of 18.7 percent year-over-year growth to 16.10 percent home price growth in July. This reading translated to an 0.20 percent loss in month-to-month home price growth.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.40 percent in July after increasing by 0.40 percent in June. This was the first time since March 2012 that the 20-City Home Price Index posted a decreasing pace of home price growth; all 20 cities posted slower year-over-year home price growth in July than in June.

Seven cities in the 20-City Index posted higher home price gains in July as compared to June. Demand for homes exceeds supply in many areas; limited availability of homes, rising mortgage rate, and high home prices have discouraged would-be home buyers. Analysts said that home prices fell due to rising mortgage rates impacting affordability. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that the slowing pace of home price growth in July was the “largest deceleration in the history of the Index.”

Cities that previously enjoyed rapidly rising home prices experienced a marked slowing in home price growth. Home price growth fell by 3.50 percent in San Francisco, California, and Seattle, Washington reported a 3.10 percent decline in home price growth. Home price growth in San Diego, California decreased by 2.50 percent in July. Cities posting gains in home prices included Miami, Florida with month-to-month home price growth of 1.30 percent; Home prices in Cleveland, Ohio rose by one percent, and Home prices in Chicago, Illinois rose by 0.70 percent.

FHFA Reports Home Price Growth in All Regions

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees government-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that year-over-year home prices rose for all nine census divisions and ranged from 10 percent growth in the Pacific region to 18.90 percent growth in the South Atlantic region. FHFA data is based on home sales connected with purchase money mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 26, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on housing markets, building permits issued, housing starts, and sales of previously-owned homes. The Federal Reserve released its scheduled monetary policy statement and gave a  press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence In Housing Markets Lags for 9th Consecutive Month

The National Association of Home Builders reported lower builder confidence in housing markets in September; this was the ninth straight month that builder confidence fell. Readings of 50 and above indicate that most home builders surveyed reported positive views of the U.S. housing market.  Excluding readings during the pandemic, September’s reading was the lowest measure of builder confidence since May of 2014.

Component readings for the monthly housing market confidence reading were also lower in September. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months fell by one point and confidence in prospective buyer traffic in housing developments was also one point lower.

All four NAHB regions reported lower builder confidence readings in September than in August. The western region reported a ten-point drop in builder confidence and the southern region saw builder confidence in housing markets drop by seven points. The midwestern and northeastern regions each reported a drop of five points in builder confidence in September. Rising mortgage rates and home prices contributed to the dip in homebuilder confidence.

Federal Reserve Raises Target Rate Range and Mortgage Rates Follow

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate range again in an attempt to slow rapid inflation. The target interest rate range was raised by 0.75 percent to a range of 3.00 to 3.25 percent. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining inflation at or near two percent and achieving maximum employment.

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.29 percent and were 27 basis points higher than in the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points on average to 5.4 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged four basis points higher at 4.97 percent. Discount points averaged 0.90 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1 percentage point for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 213,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 208,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices along with reports on pending home sales and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 19, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Consumer Inflation Rate Falls as Gas Prices Decrease

Lower gas prices was welcomed news to consumers last week, but analysts said that high inflation would continue to impact consumer goods including groceries. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose by 0.60 percent, which was twice the expected month-to-month pace of  0.30 percent. Rapidly rising inflation could cause the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve to raise its target interest rate range again in a further attempt to slow runaway inflation.

While lower gas prices provided good news for consumers, rising costs for food, clothing, and household goods added to financial pressures for many families. The Fed indicated that it would increase its target interest rate range as needed to ease rapidly rising prices.

The consumer price index rose by 8.30 percent year-over-year, which exceeded the expected reading of 8.00 percent, but fell short of July’s year-over-year reading of 8.50 percent growth. The year-over-year reading for core consumer prices showed 6.30 percent growth which exceeded expectations of 6.00 percent growth and July’s reading of 5.90 percent growth.

In related news, retail sales rose by 0.30 percent in August and exceeded expectations of 0.10 percent month-to-month growth but fell short of July’s reading of 0.40 percent growth in retail sales. August’s retail sales excluding autos were -0.30 percent lower than in July. Analysts expected 0.10 percent growth in sales based on a flat reading of 0.00 percent growth n July. Consumers assumed a wait-and-see position about spending and chose to hold on to their cash.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates as the average fixed rate for 30-year mortgages exceeded six percent for the first time since 2008. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 13 basis points higher than in the previous week at 6.02 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.21 percent and five basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 29 basis points higher at 4.93 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and0.90 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

Fewer new jobless claims were filed last week with 213,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 218,000 initial jobless claims filed. Analysts expected 225,000 new jobless claims to be filed. The University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 59.5 in September as compared to the expected reading of 60.0 and August’s reading of 58.2. Consumer sentiment readings over 50 indicate that most consumers feel positive about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on the U.S. housing market, sales of previously-owned homes, data on housing starts, and building permits. issued Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 12, 2022Last week’s economic reporting was minimal due to the Labor Day Holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Fed Chair: Rates Expected to Remain Higher

Chair Powell said that interest rates will remain high for a longer than expected time as “history cautions against prematurely loosening [monetary] policy.” The Federal Reserve has a legislative mandate to maintain its target interest rate range at or near 2 percent, During a discussion at the Cato Institute, Chair Powell said that the longer inflation remains above the target rate range the more likely the public will view high inflation as normal.

Chair Powell addressed concerns about political influence on Fed policy. “ I can assure you that we never take into consideration external political considerations.” While President Biden supports the Fed’s policies,  Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concern that too many rate hikes could raise unemployment. Chairman Powell would not indicate how much the Fed may raise rates at its next monetary policy meeting on September 21 but analysts said the rate hike would likely be 0.75 percent or 0.50 percent at the least.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points to 5.89 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.16 percent and were 18 basis points higher than in the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.64 percent and were 13 basis points higher on average. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.80 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

New jobless claims fell to 222,000 initial claims filed last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 new jobless claims filed.  1.45 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the previous week’s 1.44 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on month-to-month and annual inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 6, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home price growth, federal data on public and private sector job growth, the national unemployment rate, and data on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in June

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported slower home price growth in June as home price growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 18.0 percent as compared to May’s reading of 19.9 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index posted 18.6  percent growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 20.50 percent year-over-year growth in May.

The top three cities in June’s 20-City Home Price Index were Tampa, Florida, which posted the fastest year-over-year home price growth rate for the fourth consecutive month with a reading of 35.00 percent,  and Miami. Florida with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 33.00 percent. Dallas, Texas completed the top three cities with year-over-year home price growth of 28.20 percent.

While all 20 cities reported double-digit percentages for year-over-year home price growth, 19 of 20 cities reported slower rates of home price appreciation in June. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, explained the difference between the deceleration of home price growth and home price decline. A deceleration in home price growth indicates that while home prices continue to increase, they’re doing so at a slower pace. A decline in home prices means that home prices are falling.

Analysts expect rising mortgage rates to negatively impact home sales as affordability issues increase. As demand for homes falls, home prices may also fall as the housing market cools.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 5.66 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.98 percent and 13 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.51 percent and 15 basis points higher than in the previous week.

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 232,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 237,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 245,000 new jobless claim filings last week. Job growth reports from ADP and the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed sharp drops in job growth; ADP, which reports on private-sector payrolls, reported 132,000 jobs added in August as compared to July’s reading of 268,000 private-sector jobs added in July. The Non-Farm Payrolls report

The national unemployment report rose to 3.70 percent in August from July’s reading of 3.50 percent. Analysts expected a reading of 3.50 percent unemployment for August.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting is spare due to the Labor Day Holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will be released.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 29, 2022

Last week’s economic news included readings on pending home sales, new home sales, and readings on monthly and yearly inflation rates. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published along with the University of Michigan’s final monthly and year-over-year readings on consumer sentiment.

Commerce Department Reports Fewer New Homes Sold in July

Sales of new homes fell by 12.60 percent month-to-month and were 29.6 percent lower year-over-year in July. The Commerce Department reported a year-over-year sales pace of 511,000 new homes sold in July as compared with June’s revised pace of 585,000 new homes sold. June’s reading was revised from its original year-over-year pace of 590,000 new home sales and was the lowest pace of home sales reported since January 2016.

Fears of rapidly rising inflation and mortgage rates impacted would-be homebuyers as construction costs and labor shortages contributed to rising home prices. Pending home sales decreased by one percent in July as compared to June’s reading of -8.9 percent fewer pending sales reported in June.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed-rate mortgages as the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.53 percent and 42 basis points higher. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.85 percent and were 0.30 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was three basis points lower at 4.36 percent; discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 243,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 245,000 initial claims filed.

Inflation readings for July showed the first decrease since April 2020 as the month-to-month reading decreased by 0.10 percent as compared to June’s month-to-month reading of a one-percent increase in inflation. The core personal consumption rate, which does not include food or fuel costs, rose by 0.10 percent as compared to the expected reading of 0.20 percent and June’s reading of 0.60 percent inflation.

Inflation rose by 6.30 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s year-over-year reading of 6.80 percent. Core inflation rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.80 percent. Decreasing inflationary growth suggests that relief may be on the way for consumers.

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home prices, construction spending,  public and private-sector job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 29, 2022

Last week’s economic news included readings on pending home sales, new home sales, and readings on monthly and yearly inflation rates. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published along with the University of Michigan’s final monthly and year-over-year readings on consumer sentiment.

Commerce Department Reports Fewer New Homes Sold in July

Sales of new homes fell by 12.60 percent month-to-month and were 29.6 percent lower year-over-year in July. The Commerce Department reported a year-over-year sales pace of 511,000 new homes sold in July as compared with June’s revised pace of 585,000 new homes sold. June’s reading was revised from its original year-over-year pace of 590,000 new home sales and was the lowest pace of home sales reported since January 2016.

Fears of rapidly rising inflation and mortgage rates impacted would-be homebuyers as construction costs and labor shortages contributed to rising home prices. Pending home sales decreased by one percent in July as compared to June’s reading of -8.9 percent fewer pending sales reported in June.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed-rate mortgages as the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.53 percent and 42 basis points higher. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.85 percent and were 0.30 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was three basis points lower at 4.36 percent; discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 243,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 245,000 initial claims filed.

Inflation readings for July showed the first decrease since April 2020 as the month-to-month reading decreased by 0.10 percent as compared to June’s month-to-month reading of a one-percent increase in inflation. The core personal consumption rate, which does not include food or fuel costs, rose by 0.10 percent as compared to the expected reading of 0.20 percent and June’s reading of 0.60 percent inflation.

Inflation rose by 6.30 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s year-over-year reading of 6.80 percent. Core inflation rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.80 percent. Decreasing inflationary growth suggests that relief may be on the way for consumers.

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home prices, construction spending,  public and private-sector job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

Mortgage Rates August 22, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home builder confidence in housing market conditions, Commerce Department readings on building permits issued, and housing starts along with readings on retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Falls for 8th Consecutive Month in August 

The National Association of Home Builders reported an index reading of 49 for home builder confidence in August. Analysts expected a reading of 54 and July’s index reading was 55. Readings over 50 indicate that a majority of home builders surveyed viewed current housing market conditions as positive. Builders surveyed cited ongoing concerns including rising materials and labor costs and a lack of buildable lots, but rapidly rising mortgage rates and the resulting higher costs of buying a home increased home builders’ concerns about the U.S. housing market.

Builders reported making buyer concessions including lowering home prices and adding buyer incentives. 20 percent of home builders surveyed said that they reduced home prices within the last month.

Component readings for home builders’ confidence were also lower. Sales expectations for the next six months fell two points; the index reading for prospective buyer traffic fell by 5 points to 32 points. Regional readings also showed lower readings for builder confidence. The Western region reported 11 points lower builder confidence in July; home builder confidence in the Northeastern region fell by nine points and home builder confidence was seven points lower in the South. Home builder confidence in the Midwestern region fell by three points.

Mortgage Rates, Initial Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.13 percent and were nine basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.55 percent and four basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at 4.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 250,000 initial claims filed as compared to 252,000 first-time jobless claims filed in the previous week. Analysts expected 260,000 initial jobless claims to be filed last week. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.44 million claims from the previous week’s reading of 1.43 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new homes and pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 15, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Inflation Rate Unchanged in July

According to the government’s Consumer Price Index, month-to-month inflation did not rise in July as compared to June’s reading of 1.30 percent growth. Analysts expected a reading of 0.20 percent inflationary growth. Inflation rose by 8.50 percent year-over-year against expectations of 8.70 percent year-over-year growth and June’s year-over-year inflationary growth of 9.10 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.30 percent month-to-month in July. Analysts expected a core inflation rate of  0.50 percent month-to-month in July based on June’s reading of 0.70 percent growth. 

Core inflation rose by 5.90 percent year-over-year in July; analysts expected a reading of 6.10 percent based on June’s year-over-year reading of 5.90 percent.

Lower gas prices contributed to slower inflation, but analysts said there were no guarantees of ongoing reductions in fuel prices.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points to 5.22 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 33 basis points to 4.59 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose by 18 basis points to 4.43 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.00 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims rose to 262,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 264,000 first-time jobless claims filed. and the previous week’s reading of 248,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also rose with 1.43 million ongoing jobless claims filed as compared to 1.42 million continuing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

The University of Michigan published its preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 55.10 as compared to the expected reading of 52.50 and July’s index reading of 51.5. Index readings above 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed had a positive view of current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on home prices, sales of previously-owned homes, along with reports on building permits issued, housing starts, and data on retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 8, 2022

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending, government reports on jobs, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Commerce Department Reports Construction Spending Rose in May

The U.S. Commerce Department initially reported less construction spending in May but revised its reading of $1.780 trillion to show that spending rose by 0.10 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.782 trillion. Analysts expected construction spending to rise by 0.40 percent month-to-month as compared to April’s reading of  0.10 percent growth. Construction spending grew by 8.30 percent year-over-year. Concerns over high inflation and affordability of homes presented ongoing concerns for home builders,

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 31 basis points to 4.99 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 32 basis points lower at 4.26 percent. 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.04 basis points lower at 4.25 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.6 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.25 percent and were four basis points lower with discount points averaging 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 260,000 new claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 254,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also rose with 1.42 million claims filed; 1.37 million ongoing claims were filed in the previous week.

Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 528,000 jobs in July, which was more than twice the predicted reading of 258,000 jobs added and more jobs added than in June, when 398,000 jobs were added. The national unemployment rate fell to 3.50 percent in July from June’s reading of 3.60 percent. While job growth suggested increasing economic stability, uncertainty over inflation and consumer concerns about high prices for housing, gas, and food kept optimism in check.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation and the University of Michigan’s preliminary monthly report on consumer sentiment along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.